Japan’s $1.5B Solar Bet: Can Perovskite Cells Challenge China’s Dominance?

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Japan is making a bold move in the global renewable energy race, investing $1.5 billion to commercialize next-generation perovskite solar technology. This ambitious initiative is seen as a strategic effort to challenge China’s dominance in solar energy, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and accelerate the country’s decarbonization efforts.

At the heart of this push is Sekisui Chemical, a company already recognized for its environmental leadership by CDP, earning a double “A” score in Climate Change and Water Security. Now, Sekisui is at the forefront of Japan’s perovskite revolution, aiming to make ultra-thin, flexible solar panels a commercially viable energy solution.

The Promise of Perovskite: A Game-Changer for Solar Energy

Unlike traditional silicon solar panels, perovskite solar cells are 20 times thinner, lighter, and flexible, allowing them to be installed on a wide range of urban surfaces, from stadiums and airports to office buildings. This innovation is particularly critical for Japan, where limited land availability has constrained the growth of large-scale solar farms.

By 2040, Japan aims to install enough perovskite solar capacity to match the output of 20 nuclear power plants, helping the country meet its target of generating 50% of its electricity from renewables. The government has pledged up to ¥157 billion ($1 billion) in subsidies to Sekisui Chemical, building on an earlier ¥60 billion ($400 million) investment in research and development.

A Race Against China’s Solar Dominance

Currently, China controls 85% of the global solar panel market and 79% of polysilicon production, making it the undisputed leader in traditional solar energy. However, perovskite cells rely on iodine, a material where Japan and Chile are the world’s top suppliers. By prioritizing this technology, Japan aims to diversify supply chains and reduce reliance on Chinese solar imports.

Despite the promise of perovskite, early production costs are expected to be three times higher than conventional silicon panels. Analysts suggest that initial demand will be concentrated in dense, high-income cities such as Tokyo, Taipei, and Singapore, where space constraints make thin, flexible solar films more attractive than bulky panels.

“It’s not secure in terms of energy security to buy from China,” said Yana Hryshko, head of solar supply chain research at Wood Mackenzie. However, she noted that China remains the only country capable of scaling up solar production at the speed and cost necessary to drive global adoption.

Sekisui Chemical’s Role in Japan’s Solar Revolution

Sekisui Chemical has taken a major step forward in mass-producing perovskite solar films, establishing a new subsidiary with 1,000 employees and deploying its technology at its Osaka headquarters, bus stops outside Osaka Station, and Tokyo Cruise Terminal.

A key breakthrough has been developing a proprietary sealing resin that prevents moisture from damaging the delicate perovskite layers—a challenge that has hindered commercialization. The company plans to invest ¥310 billion ($2 billion) to scale production at a former Sharp factory, with half of the funding coming from government subsidies.

Key milestones for Sekisui Chemical’s perovskite roadmap:

  • 2027: Start mass production of 100 MW per year, reducing costs to 3-4 times that of traditional silicon panels.
  • 2030: Ramp up production to 1 GW, reaching cost parity with silicon-based solar technology.

To accelerate adoption, Sekisui is also focused on developing materials to affix solar films to different urban surfaces. “If we can clear these challenges, we will firmly enter mass production,” said Futoshi Kamiwaki, President of Sekisui Solar Film.

Looking beyond Japan, Sekisui is eyeing export markets in the U.S. and Europe, where demand for decentralized renewable energy solutions is growing. “In the domain of solar energy, this is our last chance to tackle China’s market dominance,” Kamiwaki added.

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