A new study by Charles River Associates (CRA), commissioned by Veolia, examines the potential economic consequences of hazardous waste treatment capacity failing to keep pace with industrial growth. The analysis projects that annual U.S. hazardous waste generation could reach 37.4 million tons by 2033, an increase of approximately 5 million tons over current levels.
The study estimates that a sustained 1% shortfall in hazardous waste management capacity could reduce projected real U.S. gross output by $27.5 billion in 2033. Under a scenario involving a 3% capacity shortfall, that figure increases to $82.4 billion.
These figures are economic modeling scenarios, not forecasts of actual losses. Nevertheless, they raise a relevant question for manufacturers investing in new domestic production: Will the infrastructure needed to manage their industrial waste be available when operations reach full capacity?
The prospect of a nationwide hazardous waste capacity shortage is not supported by current federal assessments. In its 2024 National Capacity Assessment, published in January 2025, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) concluded that the United States had sufficient hazardous waste treatment and disposal capacity through 2049.
However, that finding comes with important qualifications. The EPA identified limited excess capacity in certain treatment categories, particularly commercial incineration, for which it reported approximately 890,000 tons of annual capacity. Its assessment also relied partly on waste generation figures from 2021 and treatment facility data collected in 2024.
CRA's analysis introduces another consideration: the economic effects of capacity constraints affecting individual industries or regions, even when sufficient treatment infrastructure exists nationally.
For manufacturers, the distinction matters. A facility may hold permits to process hazardous materials without having the equipment, available operating capacity or authorization needed to accept a particular waste stream. Transportation distances, scheduled maintenance and unexpected shutdowns introduce further complications.
Geographic concentration adds to these operational challenges. CRA estimates that Texas generates approximately 53% of the nation's hazardous waste, largely reflecting its established chemical, refining and industrial operations. Commercial treatment infrastructure in Texas and Arkansas serves industrial customers across a much wider geographic area. Any disruption to these facilities could affect manufacturers beyond their immediate markets.
Meanwhile, new manufacturing investments are increasing demand in regions where specialized commercial treatment infrastructure may be less readily accessible.
Arizona provides one example. TSMC began high-volume production at its first Arizona semiconductor fabrication plant in late 2024, with its second facility targeting production in the second half of 2027. Although semiconductor operations can use several waste treatment and recovery methods, the EPA's 2024 inventory did not identify a broadly available commercial hazardous waste incinerator in Arizona.
Similar considerations apply to the Southeast, where battery manufacturing investments continue to reshape regional industrial activity. Georgia's Hyundai-SK On battery facility began initial production in June 2026, adding another major operation to the region's manufacturing base. Georgia likewise had no broadly available commercial incinerator identified in the EPA's assessment.
Neither situation demonstrates an existing regional shortage. Manufacturers routinely transport hazardous waste across state lines, and many waste streams can be managed through recycling, wastewater treatment, underground injection or other permitted methods.
However, continued industrial development makes it increasingly important to assess treatment capabilities against the specific materials generated by new facilities rather than relying exclusively on national capacity figures.
Expanding hazardous waste infrastructure requires more than adding permitted treatment facilities. New capacity must accommodate the chemical characteristics of industrial waste, meet regulatory requirements and operate reliably enough to support manufacturers with continuous production schedules.
Unexpected maintenance, treatment facility closures and major environmental remediation projects can place additional pressure on available infrastructure. Companies operating facilities that generate specialized hazardous waste may face higher transportation costs, limited treatment options or production disruptions when service availability changes.
These risks create an incentive to address hazardous waste management earlier in industrial development. Evaluating regional treatment providers, securing alternative disposal arrangements and identifying opportunities for waste reduction can help manufacturers limit their exposure to future capacity constraints.
Veolia is expanding its position in the U.S. hazardous waste management market. Following its June 2026 acquisition of Clean Earth, the company reported a network comprising more than 100 service centers, 33 treatment, storage and disposal facilities, and six high-temperature incineration units.
That expanded network could provide additional service options for industrial customers, although the acquisition itself does not establish how much new treatment capacity will become available. Veolia also has a commercial interest in the conclusions of the CRA study it commissioned, an important consideration when interpreting the report's economic scenarios.
For industrial developers, the investment implications extend beyond identifying a waste management contractor. Companies planning new facilities should evaluate the types and volumes of waste their operations will produce, the availability of appropriately permitted treatment providers and the potential consequences of interrupted service.
Waste minimization, materials recovery and permitted onsite treatment may also reduce reliance on external facilities while supporting operational efficiency.
The EPA's national assessment and CRA's economic modeling ultimately address different questions. Federal data indicates that sufficient treatment and disposal capacity exists nationally, while CRA examines the economic consequences that could emerge if available infrastructure fails to meet industrial demand.
The unresolved issue is whether treatment capacity will be accessible in the regions, quantities and specialized forms required by expanding industries.
As manufacturers commit billions of dollars to new U.S. production facilities, hazardous waste management deserves consideration alongside electricity, water, transportation and other essential industrial infrastructure.
