The international aviation industry’s commitment to realize net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050 is a daunting, but not insurmountable, task. Increasing reliance on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will be one of the primary pathways to success, but there are challenges when it comes to SAF costs and supply issues.
For SAF to take off as a viable solution for decarbonizing aviation, fuel manufacturers are adopting digital technologies as an important way to overcome the barriers and reap the benefits.
Research firm Global Market Insights reports the SAF market climbed to more than $950 million this year and, as aviation companies continue to prioritize corporate sustainability strategies, the market likely will scale at a compound annual growth (CAGR) rate of over 45% between 2024 and 2032. This is great news; however, there are some key barriers to growth.
First, there’s the cost. Global Market Insights noted in a July report that one of the obstacles to using SAF is the cost disparity between SAF and conventional jet fuels. Many factors impact the costs of generating SAF and, therefore, the price per gallon. These include the price of the feedstocks required to make it, the technologies required for production, and the lack of scale for production. Many governments offer tax incentives and funding to make the transition more palatable cost-wise.
Another challenge is supply. There’s not enough SAF to go around as demand for feedstocks often outpaces supply. Moreover, the competition for SAF feedstocks can be fierce, and it’s not just from other aviation fuel suppliers -- maritime fuel manufacturers also have sustainable fuel goals. There are also not enough SAF production facilities to meet the requirements to reach the 2050 net-zero goals.
Scaling SAF production will be critical to increasing the mix of conventional fuels with renewable sources, especially considering that global fuel consumption by commercial airlines will be around 99 billion gallons this year alone, according to Statista. For now, SAF remains a small percentage of the overall aviation fuel supply: citing the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Fastmarkets recently reported that global production of SAF will rise to about 502 million gallons this year, or about 0.53% of aviation’s fuel needs for 2024.
The good news is that the volume of SAF produced is growing quickly year over year. In the U.S. (which is not one of the major producers of SAF), for example, the plan is to produce three billion gallons annually by 2030, and to continue increasing volumes to reach 35 billion gallons by 2050. Diversifying feedstocks will make increased production easier, too. IATA has stated that other sources beyond traditional biofuels might include agricultural and forestry residues, and even municipal waste.
How do we tackle the scaling problem to meet 2050 requirements? One solution is innovation, particularly in the form of digital technologies. While retrofitting existing conventional jet fuel operations to generate SAF is possible, the fastest way to significantly boost production is with “born digital” greenfield projects -- facilities built on modern digital technologies to meet the challenges of SAF head-on.
Fully digital facilities are designed for top performance and the highest efficiencies from the first day of operation. For example, by leveraging data and digital solutions embedded with Industrial AI, which provide guardrails based on extensive domain expertise and engineering fundamentals, operators can gather trusted insights around production in real time so they can maximize their output from feedstocks – no matter which ones they are using. Digital technologies will help aviation fuel manufacturers achieve the scalability and production needed for SAF to reach its potential.
Digital operations can be built with digital twins, which makes it possible to test unlimited scenarios and workarounds to prepare for potential problems with supplies or feedstock types. For example, if a facility’s primary feedstock supply were compromised, operators could move to another planned scenario and implement the needed changes to switch to an alternate feedstock with minimal disruption in output.
Digital technologies with analytics can help determine the cost/benefit of bringing in another type of feedstock or equipment and whether the move will be beneficial and cost effective overall. Digital tools will be used to support fuel manufacturers, airlines, and aviation OEMs to reduce carbon intensity and utilize SAF in the most cost-effective way while helping them meet long-term capacity needs.
Digital supply chain modeling and supply chain optimization technologies also will be used to help supply chains keep up with innovative technologies and sustainable feedstocks availability, enabling the upgrade of advanced feedstock.
Beyond individual facility optimization, digital technologies such as asset templates can help increase the number of facilities producing SAF. With tools like these, producers can create reusable modular designs so they can more quickly develop additional SAF manufacturing facilities. The templates can provide a solid base for new facility development, while offering customizable elements to finalize construction based on geographic considerations and available feedstocks in that region, for example.
Moreover, digital process simulation tools will help facility operators identify opportunities to lower operating costs, consume less energy, and achieve other benefits.
There are huge opportunities around SAF, both for businesses and for global sustainability efforts. Because it is mostly generated through renewable feedstocks – including waste cooking oil, vegetable oils and others – SAF is an attractive option for achieving sustainability goals. It’s important to note that while SAF is key, there are other options such as hydrogen and other non-fossil fuels that also can help with decarbonization of the aviation industry.
Digital technologies are key to reaching decarbonization goals – and critical for achieving net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050.
Gerardo Muñoz is a Senior Solutions Manager for Sustainability Solutions, AspenTech (NASDAQ: AZPN). He develops the positioning of AspenTech solutions on key sustainability areas, such as hydrogen, CCS, bio-based feedstocks and plastics circularity. He is part of the core group leading the sustainability go-to-market strategy for the company and is responsible for aligning the messaging across stakeholders.
Prior to joining AspenTech, Gerardo was an alternative fuels analyst. He researched biodiesel and microalgae as alternative sources of energy and designed equipment for carbon capture projects in the cement industry.
Gerardo holds a bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from Tec de Monterrey in Mexico, and a master’s degree in sustainable chemical engineering from Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden.
