California’s agricultural dominance is increasingly under threat as climate change brings more frequent droughts, fires, and extreme weather events. With the state producing more than two-thirds of the nation’s fruits and nuts and nearly half of its vegetables, the need for a sustainable shift in food production has never been more urgent.
The World Wildlife Fund’s (WWF) Markets Institute identified this looming crisis over a decade ago, seeing it not just as a challenge but also as an opportunity. In response, WWF is working to establish a sustainable and equitable specialty crop industry in the Mid-Mississippi Delta, covering western Tennessee, northwestern Mississippi, and eastern Arkansas. This initiative aims to ease the pressure on California, prevent land conversion, and create an engine of growth in the Delta region.
The Delta region, renowned for its rich agricultural history, currently focuses on large-scale crops like corn, soy, rice, cotton, and wheat. However, specialty crops—though they make up just 0.19% of planted acres—generate 1.08% of the region’s agricultural revenue. Nationally, specialty crops occupy 1.9% of planted acres but contribute 14.2% to agricultural revenues, highlighting the significant economic potential of expanding specialty crop production in the Delta.
Equitable wealth creation is a priority for the WWF initiative, especially given the significant decline in farm ownership by nonwhite farmers—from 14% in 1920 to under 2% today. In the Delta, Black-owned farms are significantly smaller and less profitable compared to the average. Addressing these disparities, WWF, in partnership with AgLaunch, formed an Advisory Council of local stakeholders to guide the initiative using the Collective Impact Framework. This council has met over the past 18 months, developing a shared set of metrics to measure value, wealth creation, and economic development, with each organization committed to supporting actions that align with these goals.
Future climate predictions suggest that the Delta will have conditions similar to California’s, making it suitable for specialty crops such as specialty rice, soybeans, corn, grains, and a variety of fruits and nuts. However, the Delta’s humid climate will require careful management of pest and disease pressures, along with significant infrastructure investments for commercial-scale production.
Labor remains a critical challenge, necessitating thousands of additional workers and substantial investment in agricultural technology. The initiative emphasizes a strategic, farm-centric approach to crop selection, supported by regional-level infrastructure and information dissemination. This approach aims to avoid the negative consequences of land conversion and ensure a resilient agricultural system.
“Climate change is putting increased pressure on our already tenuous food supply chain. If we don’t have a plan now, we’re going to see more conversion of natural spaces like forests, grasslands, and wetlands. And that will only make the climate and biodiversity crises worse,” said Julia Kurnik, WWF’s senior director of innovation start-ups. “But here’s the thing—as we rethink where we grow our food we should also rethink how. We can build a better system from the ground up, ensuring that growers who have traditionally been shut out of markets can benefit along with the rest of the region.”
The Next California initiative not only seeks to relocate crop production but also to generate economic development and wealth for local communities. Innovative equity ownership structures and funding streams will place more control and profits with producers and communities. Additionally, bonds could be used to raise funds for social and environmental goals, with revenues benefiting local communities.
Buyers, increasingly concerned about supply chain security, are exploring new markets like the Delta. Long-term contracts and investments in the region are being considered to ensure consistent supply and food safety. Aggregators and infrastructure investments will play a crucial role in connecting growers and buyers, securing supply chains, and ensuring market access for small and minority farmers.
Phase II of the project involved extensive research and stakeholder engagement, setting the stage for Phase III, which focuses on supporting pilot projects like Foodwise, developing partnerships, and addressing data gaps. Foodwise aims to build a sustainable rice industry in the Delta, working with Black and women farmers.
“We are determined to capture a significant opportunity for women and minority farmers to participate in larger specialty rice contracts. While we still face significant hurdles, we’ve already hit some major milestones, including securing our first wholesale buyer contract.” said Hallie Shoffner, the sixth-generation Arkansas farmer who created Foodwise and serves on the Next California Advisory Council.
The Next California initiative sets the stage for a new agricultural paradigm, focusing on supporting farmers, boosting communities, creating jobs, and diversifying the region. Despite significant challenges, this initiative offers a model for regions worldwide on how to transition crops sustainably while promoting economic and social equity.
As the Delta region embraces this transformation, the lessons learned and successes achieved could provide a blueprint for addressing climate change impacts on agriculture globally. With coordinated efforts, innovative solutions, and a commitment to equity, the future of farming in the Delta—and beyond—looks promising.
