The United States has significantly expanded its SAF infrastructure. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), SAF production has increased from 2,000 barrels per day in 2020 to 19,000 barrels per day in 2023, with projections reaching 51,000 barrels per day by 2025. These gains are primarily attributed to co-processing at renewable diesel facilities, an area where the U.S. leads globally.
The U.S. Department of Energy has made notable investments in next-generation SAF projects:
Additional contributors include World Energy’s Paramount facility in California and Marathon’s Dickinson plant in North Dakota, both of which support SAF production alongside renewable diesel.
According to a MarketsandMarkets forecast, the U.S. SAF market is expected to grow from $0.86 billion in 2024 to $6.97 billion by 2030, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46.8%. This expansion is driven by rising environmental concerns, supportive government policies, and successful demonstrations of SAF integration—such as United Airlines’ use of 100% SAF on a commercial flight.
The U.S. SAF Grand Challenge targets the production of 3 billion gallons of SAF by 2030 and 35 billion gallons by 2050—covering 100% of projected U.S. aviation fuel demand. Current production, however, remains below 100 million gallons annually, less than 0.1% of total U.S. jet fuel consumption.
To meet these targets, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) introduced the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, offering a $1.25-$1.75/gallon incentive for SAF producers. However, uncertainty around long-term subsidies—especially under shifting federal administrations—casts doubt over capital investments.
United Airlines, JetBlue, and Delta have made significant SAF offtake agreements, while Airbus and Boeing are investing in SAF pathways, including alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) and Fischer-Tropsch technologies.
Canada currently lacks commercial SAF production. However, recent developments signal a strategic shift. In late 2024, Air Canada signed a deal with Neste for 77.6 million liters (20.5 million gallons) of SAF—the first time SAF has been imported for use in Canada. Deliveries began at the Port of Vancouver, with pipeline access to Vancouver International Airport.
Additionally, the Canadian government committed more than CAD 11 million to clean fuel projects, supporting early-stage SAF facilities that convert forest biomass, waste oils, and municipal waste into low-carbon fuels.
While specific Canadian projections are not detailed in MarketsandMarkets’ global outlook, North America as a whole is poised for rapid growth. The global SAF market is expected to grow from $1.1 billion in 2023 to $16.8 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 47.7%—with the United States driving much of that expansion.
Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), which require a reduction in carbon intensity of fuels, create a national compliance market that could attract SAF producers. However, SAF remains too costly compared to renewable diesel. To bridge this gap, industry coalitions such as the Canadian Council for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (C-SAF) are advocating for:
These recommendations echo the success of hydrogen and renewable electricity investment frameworks in Canada.
Despite policy momentum, Canadian SAF development faces hurdles:
In March 2025, the U.S. enacted a 10% tariff on Canadian biofuels, including ethanol and biodiesel. Though SAF is not directly named, the tariffs affect feedstock markets and investor confidence.
These trade actions could disrupt emerging North American SAF supply chains. For instance, several Canadian SAF proposals rely on feedstock imports from the U.S. Midwest. Trade friction increases risk premiums, potentially stalling biorefinery investment.
Industry leaders from both countries have urged for binational coordination to prevent fragmentation of climate-aligned energy markets. Without aligned SAF incentives and mutual trade facilitation, Canada may continue to lag in production while the U.S. grapples with policy volatility.
SAF is essential for meeting aviation decarbonization targets in both the U.S. and Canada. However, production remains nascent, hindered by infrastructure gaps, high costs, and policy uncertainty. While the U.S. has made measurable gains through federal subsidies and commercial partnerships, it has not reached the scale required to meet its own SAF Grand Challenge goals. Canada, meanwhile, is establishing policy frameworks and initiating imports but needs bold investments to become a producer, not just a consumer.
For North America to become a global SAF leader, a harmonized regional strategy is needed—one that includes technology deployment, feedstock alignment, consistent incentives, and trade policy cooperation. The next five years will be critical in determining whether SAF remains a niche alternative or becomes the cornerstone of sustainable aviation on the continent.
