Recent analysis from Chalmers University highlights the outsized role of staple crops in global deforestation. Maize, rice, and cassava—often overlooked in sustainability strategies—collectively contribute more to forest loss than commodities such as coffee, cocoa, and rubber.
The findings are based on a detailed model combining satellite imagery with production data across 179 countries and 184 commodities. This approach offers a more precise view of land-use change, revealing that agriculture drove the loss of roughly 122 million hectares of forest between 2001 and 2022. The majority of this loss occurred in tropical regions.
What stands out is not just the scale, but the pattern. Unlike export-driven commodities that concentrate deforestation in well-known hotspots, staple crops create a dispersed footprint. Production is typically tied to local consumption, spreading land-use pressures across multiple geographies. That diffusion makes deforestation harder to trace and less responsive to traditional supply chain interventions.
A key takeaway is the growing importance of domestic markets in shaping deforestation trends. Much of the forest loss linked to staple crops is driven by internal demand rather than international trade. This shifts part of the responsibility—and opportunity for intervention—toward local food systems and policy environments.
For businesses, this means reassessing how deforestation risk is evaluated. Strategies focused narrowly on imported commodities may miss a significant portion of exposure. A broader approach is needed, one that accounts for regionally important crops and engages with local production dynamics.
The climate implications remain substantial. Agricultural and forestry-related deforestation generated an estimated 41 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions over the same two-decade period—around 5% of global emissions. While this figure is lower than earlier estimates due to improved modeling, it still reinforces the sector’s material impact on climate targets.
Looking ahead, researchers are expanding their analysis to include industries such as mining and energy, signaling a more integrated view of land-use change. For companies, the direction of travel is clear: deforestation is no longer a niche supply chain issue tied to a handful of commodities. It is a distributed, cross-sector challenge that requires more granular data, stronger local engagement, and a wider lens on risk.
