As climate change causes ocean levels to rise, sea-level rise (SLR) is becoming a major threat for communities along the coast. By the end of this century, the rising seas are expected to impact hundreds of millions of people around the world. Yet, many coastal residents, developers, and local governments still choose to rebuild in areas that flood repeatedly, holding onto a belief that things will work out—even as risks increase.
One common method to raise awareness about SLR is to use maps showing areas which are likely to be underwater by the year 2100. These maps aim to inform the public and motivate action to reduce risks. But recent studies suggest that these maps might not be as effective as intended. In some cases, showing people the predicted flood zones actually makes them less worried about the risks.
Studying How Well Sea-Level Rise Maps Work to Raise Concern
To explore how people respond to maps of future flooding, researchers conducted a study in four U.S. coastal areas: the San Francisco Bay Area in California; Palm Beach County, Florida; Norfolk, Virginia; and Ocean County, New Jersey. In the study, some participants were shown a map of projected flood zones that highlighted the specific areas expected to flood. Other participants were simply asked about their flood concerns without seeing a map.
Researchers asked everyone about their perceived risk of flooding and their attitudes toward policies that could help adapt to rising seas. In California, some participants were also informed about possible traffic disruptions due to future flooding, such as delays on their commutes to work or school. The results were surprising: seeing maps didn’t necessarily increase people’s personal concern—and in many cases, it reduced it.
Maps of Future Flood Zones: Why They Didn’t Always Raise Concern
The study found that showing people maps of future flood risks often had a surprising effect: it reduced their personal worry, even when their own homes were within the projected flood zones. Those who saw their homes marked as being at risk by 2100 sometimes interpreted this information as a reason not to worry. They saw the maps, but perhaps assumed that flooding was either a distant issue or not a major threat.
For instance, people living just outside the predicted flood zones reported a drop in personal concern, decreasing by about half a point on a four-point scale. Even those within the projected flood zones showed a similar decline in concern, by about one-third of a point on the same scale. Interestingly, viewing the maps didn’t affect how they felt about risks to the larger community or to future generations.
Support for Collective Solutions Increased, But Personal Action Didn’t
Although the maps didn’t always heighten personal concern, they did increase support for group solutions to the issue. Those living in future flood zones were more likely to support measures like expanding flood insurance and building additional flood barriers. However, there was no increase in support for more costly adaptation policies, such as limiting new development in flood-prone areas. For residents outside the projected flood zones, their views and personal levels of concern didn’t change significantly at all.
Everyday Impact: Traffic Delays as a New Way to Communicate Climate Risks
One part of the study, conducted in California, showed that traffic disruptions caused by rising seas could be a more effective way to make SLR risks feel real to people. When participants were informed about how SLR could delay commutes and cause traffic jams, their concerns about sea-level rise increased more than when they were simply shown maps of flood zones. This daily-life impact connected with people on a personal level, heightening their concern for both their communities and future generations.
The traffic-related information also boosted support for some solutions, like building more flood defenses. However, unlike the map approach, this traffic-focused communication did not increase people’s interest in expanding flood insurance. These findings suggest that focusing on everyday impacts—such as commute delays—might be a more relatable and effective way to communicate climate risks.
Implications for Effective Climate Communication
The findings highlight an important takeaway: maps showing potential flood zones may not always make people feel concerned enough to take action, especially when it comes to their own property. Instead, focusing on how rising seas could impact everyday life may be more effective in raising awareness. For example, after Hurricane Helene’s destructive flooding, people might feel more motivated to support flood-prevention policies if they realize how similar events could interrupt their daily routines in the future.
By testing different approaches to communicating climate risks, scientists and policy makers can find out which messages are most likely to inspire people to act and support policies that reduce risks for everyone. Connecting climate threats to daily life can help build stronger support for adaptation efforts that can protect communities and make coastal areas safer in the future.