The numbers represent more than an EV market footnote. They signal a structural shift in how the global logistics and freight industry is expected to power its heaviest vehicles over the next decade and a half.
The most notable aspect of SNE Research's projection is not the total unit figure — it's the composition. Commercial vehicles, including trucks and buses, are expected to account for approximately 55% of global FCEV sales in 2025. That share is projected to climb to 61% by 2030, 66% by 2035, and reach 70% by 2040.
Hydrogen fuel cell technology holds specific advantages in heavy-duty and long-haul applications that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) currently struggle to match: longer driving range, faster refueling times, and better performance under sustained high-load conditions. These attributes are particularly relevant in freight and logistics environments where vehicle downtime directly affects operational efficiency.
For context, the U.S. Department of Energy's 2025 Hydrogen Shot initiative targets reducing the cost of clean hydrogen to $1 per kilogram by 2031 — a benchmark that, if reached, would meaningfully improve the economics of fuel cell vehicles in commercial fleets.
As of 2025, China and South Korea together account for roughly 90% of global FCEV sales, a direct result of sustained policy support, early infrastructure investment, and domestic manufacturing capacity in both countries.
SNE Research's forecast projects significant regional diversification from 2030 onward. By 2040, projected regional market shares are: China (31%), Europe (23%), North America (21%), South Korea (13%), and Japan (11%). Europe and North America — currently minor players — are expected to become the primary growth regions, driven by aggressive commercial transport decarbonization policies and expanding hydrogen infrastructure investment.
In Europe, the EU's FuelEU Maritime and Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) are building regulatory pressure on commercial transport operators to accelerate fleet transitions. In North America, the U.S. EPA's Phase 3 Heavy-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Standards and state-level zero-emission truck mandates are creating compliance timelines that fleet managers must begin planning around now.
SNE Research identifies hydrogen production costs, refueling network density, and vehicle price competitiveness as the three pivotal variables that will determine whether the forecast materializes. Of these, infrastructure is widely viewed as the most acute near-term constraint.
The current global hydrogen refueling station footprint remains limited outside of South Korea, California, and select European markets. Fleet operators weighing hydrogen-powered trucks against diesel or battery-electric alternatives must factor not only vehicle cost but also the availability of refueling infrastructure along their specific routes and corridors.
Decarbonization mandates targeting commercial transport from global logistics companies — which have committed to Scope 1 and Scope 3 reduction targets under Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) frameworks — are adding a market-pull dimension alongside policy-push. Large shippers requiring their logistics providers to demonstrate lower-carbon fleets are beginning to factor fuel type into procurement and contracting decisions.
The FCEV market is not yet at scale in Western markets. The 16,000-unit global baseline in 2025 is a starting point, not a platform. The growth curve SNE Research projects requires substantial parallel development in hydrogen production, compression, storage, and dispensing infrastructure — all of which involve capital commitments with long lead times.
For transportation operators, fleet planners, and procurement teams, the forecast provides a useful planning horizon. Hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles are not a near-term replacement decision for most North American or European operators — but they are increasingly part of the long-range infrastructure and capital planning conversation, particularly for operators with 2035 or 2040 decarbonization commitments.
