In the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) territory, demand is projected to increase by 7% in 2025 and a remarkable 14% in 2026—more than five times the national average. In the broader West South Central Census Division, which includes Texas, sales could rise by 9% in 2026. Meanwhile, PJM Interconnection, which manages the grid across 13 eastern states, anticipates 3% growth in 2025 and 4% in 2026.
Much of this growth is tied to the expansion of high-intensity electricity users, particularly data centers. Northern Virginia, within the PJM footprint, hosts the largest concentration of data centers globally, and its local grid has been under growing strain as new facilities come online. According to a 2024 analysis by Virginia’s Department of Energy, data centers already account for more than 21% of total electricity consumption in some Northern Virginia counties.
“We’re witnessing a structural shift in the drivers of U.S. electricity demand,” said Tyler Hodge, principal contributor to the EIA’s July 2025 report. “The post-pandemic acceleration in commercial projects and manufacturing—particularly in semiconductors, electric vehicle production, and AI infrastructure—has translated into persistent load growth.”
The U.S. Department of Commerce reported in June 2025 that more than 75 new semiconductor and advanced manufacturing plants are expected to break ground by the end of 2026, with nearly a third located in Texas. Simultaneously, cryptocurrency mining operations—some of which consume as much power as small towns—are targeting regions with looser regulations and lower wholesale electricity prices, such as ERCOT’s market.
This spike in demand is triggering urgent policy and infrastructure responses. In 2025, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved a fast-tracked transmission build-out plan for PJM to handle a projected 30 GW of new load over the next five years. ERCOT, meanwhile, has launched its own market reforms to incentivize dispatchable generation and grid resilience, particularly during high-heat summer months.
“Grid planning used to be long-range. Now it’s real-time,” said Cheryl Mele, former COO of ERCOT and now a senior energy advisor at the consultancy GridAdvantage. “The pace at which data centers and new industrial users are coming online is challenging even our most agile models.”
The implications extend well beyond electricity providers. Emissions profiles may shift regionally as utilities race to bring more capacity online. While both PJM and ERCOT have growing shares of renewable generation, reliability concerns are prompting regulators to extend lifespans of natural gas and nuclear plants. This could complicate decarbonization targets in states like Virginia, Maryland, and Texas.
Additionally, affordability is an emerging issue. The Energy Futures Initiative warned that rising peak demand in ERCOT could add $8–12 billion annually in grid investment costs—costs that may be passed on to consumers.
