Since 2009, access has expanded from 18% to its current level. The growth has been gradual, shaped by alignment between local collection programs, material recovery facility (MRF) capabilities, and end-market demand. Independent tracking continues to focus on a core metric: whether residents can place cartons in their local recycling programs. Increasingly, the answer is yes.
For packaging suppliers, brands, and recyclers, the data points to infrastructure maturity. With an estimated 73% of U.S. households having some form of recycling service, carton acceptance now aligns with the majority of those programs. The material is no longer treated as an exception; in many regions, it fits within existing collection and sorting processes with incremental operational adjustments.
The 2025 gains were driven primarily by targeted local actions rather than sweeping federal mandates. Municipal updates to accepted material lists, refinements to sortation processes, and expanded drop-off options collectively extended access at scale.
In Austin, Texas, a partnership expansion with a local MRF added carton acceptance for roughly 500,000 households, creating a foundation for broader regional growth. Across parts of Florida and North Carolina, counties and cities introduced curbside updates and enhanced drop-off programs, bringing access to tens of thousands of households at a time.
Oregon illustrates how policy can accelerate operational change. With extended producer responsibility (EPR) for packaging now active, more consistent statewide collection lists enabled access to carton recycling for more than 600,000 households in one year, representing a 38% increase. The state’s experience demonstrates how regulatory frameworks, combined with coordinated implementation, can translate policy into measurable increases in material recovery.
Despite advances in sorting technology and end-market development, access remains foundational. If residents cannot place cartons in their recycling bins or deliver them to local drop-off sites, the downstream system does not engage. Collection access determines whether processing and remanufacturing capacity can be utilized effectively.
Expanded access also strengthens supply reliability. As more communities accept cartons, recyclers and manufacturers gain a steadier stream of recovered fiber suitable for paper products and composite building materials. Greater geographic coverage supports investment decisions by reducing variability in feedstock availability.
While 63% coverage reflects meaningful progress, a significant share of U.S. households still lack access. The trajectory, however, is consistent. The 2025 milestone reflects cumulative, locally driven improvements that are incrementally reshaping the recycling landscape. For industry stakeholders, the takeaway is clear: sustained operational coordination—rather than singular headline policy shifts—is what moves materials from the carton to the bin, and ultimately back into productive use.
