US renewable energy is taking gigantic policy hits these days, but competitive renewables projects can still survive and even thrive in the changed policy landscape.
For example, EPA moved to suspend a Biden-era requirement for oil and gas operations to plug methane leaks, but meanwhile, nine states are working on policies to require capturing and using more methane from landfills, including a draft Colorado rule on which hearings were held in late August. Capturing more landfill methane has the potential to cut US emissions and boost renewables significantly, even as other forms of GHG reduction and clean energy get rolled back.
President Trump has signaled animosity for renewables, vowing no windmills will be built and issuing an executive order ending “so-called ‘green’ subsidies” for “expensive and unreliable energy sources like wind and solar,” claiming they “threaten national security by making the United States dependent on supply chains controlled by foreign adversaries.”Trump’s FY26 budget phases out Inflation Reduction Act tax credits for wind and solar within one year. That could prevent half of planned new wind and solar capacity from coming online over the next decade. Without the credits, only about 30% of planned solar and 57% of planned wind projects will be able to compete. Meanwhile, an Interior Department directive requires Secretary Doug Burgum to personally sign off on any solar and wind permitting on federal lands to “level the playing field for oil and gas.” That could take hundreds of millions of sun-drenched, windswept acres off the table for renewables development.
In such a policy environment, renewables projects can’t rely on federal subsidies and need a compelling business case. At the same time, while the budget law rapidly sunsets IRA tax credits for intermittent renewables like wind and solar, it preserves them for other baseload renewables, including hydroelectric dams, geothermal plants, and battery storage, and extends the 45Z Clean Fuels Production tax credit through 2029. This technology-neutral credit for low-emissions transportation fuels helps incentivize a growing market for biomethane/renewable natural gas (RNG), among other fuels.
RNG, like fossil natural gas, is almost pure methane, which is at least 86 times more powerful a warming agent than carbon dioxide over 20 years. Methane has already caused a third of modern global warming and counting, so cutting it is key to slowing near-term temperature rise.
70% of the methane in US RNG comes from landfills, the third largest methane emitter after the agriculture and energy sectors. Recent satellite data shows methane emissions from landfills were previously underestimated by as much as 50%. Tightening up on these emissions is a cost-effective way to abate methane, and there is a strong business case for it, because landfills already supply most of the feedstock for the RNG market, and could supply a lot more.
Advanced landfill technologies (ALT) such as real-time monitoring and control systems make compliance with proposed stricter landfill rules much easier. The rules don’t mandate ALT systems, but they effectively encourage them. ALT systems automate what would otherwise be labor-intensive monitoring and reporting, and boost quantity and quality of captured methane, raising it well above the threshold where landfill RNG operations become profitable.
For example, across a portfolio of ten landfills using LoCI Controls’ ALT systems, gas collection increased 17%. In one case, it increased 32%, generating an additional $3.8 million in gross annual revenue. This suggests a huge opportunity for landfills to adopt ALT and become engines of renewable energy and methane abatement, and for landfill operators to make good money doing it, even in the current policy environment.
A new Energy Vision report studies the potential of advanced landfill tech, including earlier installation of gas collection and control systems (GCCS). It found that deploying them at high-emitting landfills (nearly 900 landfills nationwide are clear candidates, while another 140 could be considered “stretch goals”) could cut US methane emissions 7.2-8.6% (49.4-59.2 million MT CO2e), for just $8.35-9.58 per MT. Compare that to plugging methane leaks in low-output oil and gas “stripper wells,” which costs approximately $19 per MT.
The study found that if the 900 best candidate landfills adopted ALT, they’d capture enough methane to produce an additional 93 million MMBTU of RNG each year, boosting RNG production (135 million MMBTU in 2024) by nearly 70%. Selling this RNG would enable landfill operators to recoup their investment fast and generate $1.86 billion a year industry-wide.
So although the era of federal policy support for wind and solar may be ending, there are still big, untapped opportunities for competitive projects and creative approaches like advanced landfill tech that can deliver cost-effective GHG reductions and renewable energy generation. State policies can lower barriers to entry and help drive them forward, but fundamentally, it’s their strong business case and their ability to make money for investors that will allow them to scale.
Michael Lerner is Director of Research and Publications at the clean energy non-profit Energy Vision. He is the lead author of many EV reports on methane abatement strategies from organic waste, such as” “Meeting the Methane Challenge.” He holds a B.A. and M.A. in political science from NYU.
