It seems reports of the bachelor's degree death have been highly exaggerated.
While it's true that many young people today are drawn to high-paying jobs right out of high school, forgoing college and the associated opportunity cost, and that many states and major corporations no longer require degrees for employment, the bottom line is that college is still worth it.
And now, BestColleges reports that a new Georgetown study says the bachelor's degree will increasingly become the gateway to good jobs as we approach the 2030s.
In its new report, "The Future of Good Jobs: Projections Through 2031," the Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce defines a "good job" as one that minimally pays $43,000 (and a median of $74,000) for workers ages 25-44 and at least $55,000 (with a median of $91,000) for those in the 45-64 age bracket. Those figures are in 2022 dollars.
The report presents a framework categorizing employment opportunities according to three education "pathways": bachelor's degree, middle-skills, and high school. The middle-skills pathway assumes workers have some level of education or certificate beyond high school but not a bachelor's degree.
It's not surprising that the number of good jobs is highest for those with degrees. In 2021, there were 42.6 million good jobs for degree-holders. For middle-skills workers, that number was 16.2 million, and for those with only a high school diploma, it was 13.8 million.
Fast-forward to 2031 and the stats are expected to tell an important story. Overall, the number of good jobs is projected to grow by 21%, with good jobs accounting for 62% of all jobs in the U.S. economy (up from 59% in 2021).
But those figures don't represent an even distribution of growth.
According to projections for 2031, 66% of good jobs will be reserved for degree-holders, up from 59% in 2021. For those on the middle-skills pathway, that share drops from 22% in 2021 to 19% in 2031. And for high school graduates, the share decreases from 19% to 15%.
Today, 81% of good jobs go to workers with some amount of postsecondary education, and that share is expected to increase to 85%.
That's because, in 2031, the economy will "demand a workforce equipped with more education and training than it does now," the report claims.
"We are going through a time of major economic change that carries both promise and uncertainty, including retirements of baby boomers, potential disruptions from generative artificial intelligence, remaining inflationary pressures and high interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and an unsettled national policy landscape," said Jeff Strohl, the center's director and lead author of the report, in a press release.
"The good news, though, is we foresee substantially more good jobs by 2031, spurred by greater productivity enabled by new technologies, stronger growth among high-skill/high-wage occupations, and continued political pressure on policymakers to deliver on job quality for workers, not just low unemployment."
Given this emphasis on new technologies, it's not surprising that many good jobs will be created in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields. By 2031, 90% of all STEM jobs will be considered "good."
Yet STEM positions will constitute only 11% of the total number of good jobs in 2031. Almost one-third (31%) of good jobs will be "managerial and professional office positions," followed by blue-collar jobs (17%) and sales and office support (14%).
Healthcare (9%) and education (7%) also account for a notable portion of projected good jobs.
For degree-holders, positions in management, financial operations, education and training, and healthcare constitute much of the expected growth. Workers on the middle-skills pathway will have opportunities in management, office and administrative support, healthcare, and technical occupations.
Positions that demand graduate degrees account for 44% of the good jobs on the bachelor's degree pathway.
Those with a high school diploma will find good positions in transportation and material moving, production, construction and extraction, and installation, maintenance, and repair.
As technology advances and employers increasingly demand workers with skills and training beyond high school, more good jobs will go to workers with degrees or other postsecondary credentials.
In the "computer and mathematical science" category, for example, the report projects a growth of 618,000 new jobs for those with degrees, while jobs in that field will decline by 70,000 for people with high school diplomas.
Even the field of construction and extraction is expected to favor those with postsecondary credentials by 2031. College graduates will see 722,000 new jobs in that industry, while those in the middle-skills pathway will see 893,000. At the same time, high school graduates will realize a decline of 421,000 jobs.
All told, about 80% of jobs on the bachelor's degree pathway will be considered "good," compared to half of those on the middle-skills pathway and roughly one-third of jobs for high school graduates.
While the value of college faces growing skepticism, our report affirms that the bachelor's degree pathway will be the dominant route to a good job in 2031, with a majority of good jobs forecasted to lie on the bachelor's degree pathway," said Catherine Morris, a senior writer/editor at the center and report co-author.
As Morris' comment notes, this new report confirms the positive economic return of earning a bachelor's degree at a time when many question its value. The return on investment (ROI) of college remains strong and promises to increase in the near future as more jobs require learning and training beyond high school.
Good jobs will remain available but become scarcer for young people wishing to skip college and enter the job market after earning a diploma. Between 2021 and 2031, good job opportunities for this population will decline in 10 of the 22 occupational groups identified in the Georgetown report.
"Our numbers are very clear: Bachelor's and graduate degrees are going to dominate," Artem Gulish, senior federal policy adviser at the center and report co-author, told Inside Higher Ed. "They'll require much more of those quantitative and analytical skills. The organizational and business complexities are going to grow with greater technological capabilities."
Following a decade-long decline, college enrollments have begun to rebound, albeit slowly. With reports such as this touting the financial advantages of earning a degree, perhaps more young people will reconsider their educational plans and continue this positive trend.
This story was produced by BestColleges and reviewed and distributed by Stacker Media.
