In 2023, Europe experienced over 47,000 heat-related deaths, marking it the hottest year globally and the second hottest in Europe. This stark figure comes from a study by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), published in Nature Medicine. The research underscores that while societal adaptations have mitigated the impact of heat, the mortality burden remains severe.
Newly published research utilized temperature and mortality data from 823 regions across 35 European countries. Although 2023 lacked the prolonged extreme heat of mid-summer seen in 2022, episodes of high temperatures in July and August were responsible for over 57% of the total deaths. Southern European countries were particularly affected, with Greece, Bulgaria, and Italy showing the highest heat-related mortality rates.
According to Elisa Gallo, a researcher at ISGlobal and the study’s lead author, “Our results show that societal adaptation has significantly reduced heat-related vulnerability and mortality, especially among the elderly.” She notes that the minimum temperature for the lowest mortality risk has risen from 59°F in the early 2000s to 63.9°F in recent years, reflecting these adaptations.
Despite these advancements, the study cautions that the actual number of heat-related deaths might be underreported due to reliance on weekly rather than daily mortality data. Researchers estimate that with improved data, the death toll could be as high as 58,000.
Joan Ballester Claramunt, Principal Investigator of the ERC Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT, warns, “Europe is warming at twice the global average rate, and the 1.5°C (34.7°F) limit set by the Paris Agreement is likely to be exceeded before 2027. There is an urgent need for strategies to reduce mortality from future heatwaves and to enhance monitoring of climate change impacts on vulnerable populations.”
To aid in these efforts, ISGlobal has developed Forecaster.health. This tool provides predictions of mortality risk associated with temperature extremes by gender and age for 580 regions across 31 European countries. This tool offers forecasts up to 15 days in advance, aiming to prepare communities for extreme weather events better.
