The U.S. Geological Survey has delivered its most in-depth review of federally managed energy resources in over 25 years, uncovering a significantly larger volume of oil and natural gas than earlier assessments suggested. The updated analysis estimates 29.4 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil and 391.6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas across lands overseen by multiple federal agencies.
Compared to the last comprehensive assessment from 1998—which projected just under 8 billion barrels of oil and slightly over 200 trillion cubic feet of gas—the new figures highlight the impact of improved extraction technology, rather than new underground discoveries. This shift underscores how federal lands could play a growing role in U.S. energy strategy and resource allocation.
The study covered 579 unique geological assessment units across 69 provinces, with resource estimates adjusted based on the proportion of federal land within each unit. The result is a refined national baseline for public land resource planning and energy modeling across government and industry.
The drastic increase in recoverable resource estimates is largely due to the widespread use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing—methods that have unlocked unconventional resources like shale oil, tight gas, and coal-bed methane. These types of reserves were largely excluded from the 1998 survey because they weren’t commercially viable at the time.
Today, those unconventional formations represent the majority of the updated figures. The technological shift not only improves recovery rates but also redefines which areas are economically feasible to develop. This expands the strategic value of federal holdings significantly.
For energy planners, the implications are broad: the oil estimate alone could meet four years of U.S. demand at current consumption levels, and the natural gas could supply the country for nearly 12 years. The data provides essential input for both near-term infrastructure decisions and long-range federal energy policy, affecting stakeholders from state governments to private sector investors.
