Rollins painted a bleak picture of the agricultural sector, citing a $45.5 billion trade deficit and the loss of one in ten farms over the past decade. She also claimed that production costs rose 30% last year and that the average farmer age of 58 years old was contributing to an unsustainable industry.
However, a closer look at USDA data presents a more nuanced reality. While the U.S. is projected to run an agricultural trade deficit of $32 billion in 2024 (Note - the original data from this source was removed from the USDA Government Website)—an unusual shift from its historical surplus—the number is still significantly lower than Rollins’ claim.
On production costs, while farmers have faced rising expenses, USDA figures indicate a 15% increase in 2022, with a 5.5% increase in 2023—well below the 30% figure Rollins mentioned. Meanwhile, the average age of U.S. farmers is indeed 58, but industry experts point out that economic barriers, not just demographics, are the primary obstacles preventing young farmers from entering the field.
Rollins assured the audience that she and President Donald Trump are working “at lightning speed” to secure better trade deals for farmers and to distribute $3 billion in financial aid. However, there has been no recent USDA announcement regarding a $3 billion aid package.
Past financial relief efforts, such as the Market Facilitation Program, were used to offset losses from trade disputes, particularly with China. Yet, these subsidies disproportionately benefited large agribusinesses rather than small farmers. Rollins did not specify whether this new aid would be different or how it would be allocated.
On trade, Rollins defended tariffs as an “important tool” to help American farmers “achieve prosperity.” However, history suggests a more complicated reality. During the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war, U.S. agricultural exports suffered severe setbacks, including a dramatic decline in soybean exports to China from $12.2 billion in 2017 to $3.1 billion in 2018. While some tariffs are designed to protect domestic industries, their impact on farmers has often been disruptive rather than beneficial, requiring government subsidies to offset losses.
Labor shortages were another key issue Rollins addressed. She acknowledged that many farmers worry about the effects of Trump’s stricter immigration policies on agricultural labor. However, she insisted that the administration “has their back.”
The National Agricultural Workers Survey (NAWS) reports that approximately 68% of U.S. farmworkers are foreign-born, with the majority coming from Mexico. Among those surveyed, 36% are U.S. citizens, 19% are lawful permanent residents, and 1% have other work authorization (excluding H-2A visas). Additionally, 44% of farmworkers are undocumented immigrants, though this figure may be underestimated due to fear of self-reporting. Other estimates suggest the actual percentage of undocumented farmworkers is significantly higher, with over one million farmworkers lacking legal work authorization.
Rollins concluded her speech by promising that the administration would reach "new levels of prosperity" for farmers within four years, following a path similar to that of former Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue. However, given the inconsistencies in her statements and the complex realities facing the agricultural sector, farmers and industry stakeholders will be watching closely to see whether policies align with their actual needs.
