The DRC dominates the global cobalt market, accounting for approximately 74% of the world’s mined cobalt in 2023. With the country now halting all cobalt exports—including from artisanal and industrial sources—the repercussions will be felt across global supply chains, particularly in sectors relying on lithium-ion batteries, such as EVs, renewable energy storage, and consumer electronics.
The cobalt market has been facing an oversupply issue, leading to a sharp price decline. In response, ARECOMS’ export ban seeks to regulate supply and potentially drive prices back up. The move mirrors past interventions by other commodity-heavy nations that have sought to manage resources strategically. However, such policies often carry unintended consequences, including supply chain disruptions and increased geopolitical tensions.
The United States relies on imports for approximately 67% of its cobalt consumption, with refined cobalt primarily coming from Norway (25%), Canada (15%), Finland (13%), and Japan (12%). However, much of this cobalt originates from the DRC before being processed in these intermediary countries. With the DRC halting exports, the entire global supply chain will feel the strain, potentially increasing costs for manufacturers.
China, which refines about 80% of the world’s cobalt, is likely to be the most affected by the ban since it sources large amounts of raw cobalt from the DRC. The export suspension could tighten China’s supply, impacting battery production and leading to ripple effects across the EV and technology sectors worldwide.
Cobalt mining in the DRC has long been associated with human rights abuses, including child labor and unsafe working conditions. The ban on all exports—including artisanal mining operations—could further complicate efforts to introduce transparency and ethical sourcing into the supply chain. While some companies have committed to using blockchain technology to trace cobalt sources, the export freeze may push more mining operations into unregulated, illicit channels.
The four-month export ban may trigger stockpiling, price surges, and an accelerated push for cobalt alternatives, such as lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. Additionally, U.S. and European markets may intensify efforts to secure alternative supply chains through increased cobalt recycling and domestic mining projects.
With the DRC holding the world’s largest reserves of this critical mineral, the long-term impact of the ban will depend on how major global players—including China, the U.S., and the EU—adjust their supply chain strategies. While the export suspension is designed to stabilize prices, it could also prompt countries and corporations to diversify sourcing strategies and reduce reliance on Congolese cobalt altogether.
